C -> Current Big or Accelerating Quarterly Earnings and Sales Per Share
- EPS should be up by 25% to 50% over the same quarter in the previous year.
- The best companies can show earnings growth of 100% to 500% or more.
- Always exclude one-offs:
- sales of land
- gains from contract termination
- temporary one-quarter gains
- extraordinary income
A -> Annual Earnings Increases
- Annual earnings growth should ideally be 25%, 50%, 100%, or more.
- Focus on the rate of change in earnings growth across years.
N -> New
- Newer companies
- New products
- New management
- New highs from properly formed charts
Possible business triggers:
- new product launch
- geographical expansion
- growth in the end-user industry
- client mining, meaning more business from an existing client
- market share increase
- industry growth
- new branch introduction
- distribution expansion
- acquisition
- capex
S -> Supply and Demand
- Look for strong volume demand at key points.
- Watch supply versus demand carefully.
L -> Leader or Laggard
- Is the stock the leader in its industry or a laggard?
- Relative Strength of 70 means the stock is outperforming 70% of the market.
- The best winners usually have RS in the 80-90 range.
Tools
- MarketSmith India
- You can check RS ratings there.
- Growth 50 is useful for finding stocks with the best RS ratings.
I -> Institutional Sponsorship
- Use Screener to check whether FII buying is increasing.
- Idea: see whether smart money is entering.
M -> Market Direction
- Identify whether the market is bullish or bearish.
- Track the 10-week moving average.
- Track broader indices:
- Nifty Smallcap 250
- Nifty 50
- Nifty Midcap index
- Use indicators like SMA.
- Moving averages work well in trending markets, but not as well in downtrending or choppy markets.
When Researching and Analysing Businesses
- Investor presentations
- Concall transcripts
- BSE announcements
- Current quarterly earnings growth
- Annual earnings growth
Sector and Group Strength
- Sectors tend to do well together and factors move together.
- Roughly half of a stock's movement can be driven by the strength of its industry group.
Always watch for:
- a sector doing well together
- a sector showing up on price-volume action screens
- a subgroup hitting 52-week highs
Price and Volume Action
- Price high + volume high -> strong bullish signal
- Price high + volume low -> weakening trend
- Price down + volume high -> strong weak trend
- Price down + volume low -> weakening bearish trend
Charting
- TradingView India
- Use log charts.
Chart Patterns
Cup and Handle
- Cup formation can last 7-65 weeks.
- The handle usually forms in about 1-2 weeks after the cup.
Other patterns
- 3-week or 5-week tightening
- cup or saucer
Exit Strategy
- If the difference between stock price and moving average is around 70%, that may indicate euphoria, a peak, or a climax.
- Example: stock price more than 70% above the 200 SMA.
- All-time-high selling volume can be a warning sign.
- If the 30-week EMA crosses the stock price, consider selling.
Screener
Quarterly results screen
Bull Cartel style query:
YOY Quarterly sales growth > 15
AND
YOY Quarterly Profit growth > 20
AND
Net profit latest quarter > 1
AND
Market Capitalization > 1000
AND
Market Capitalization < 10000
AND
Price to Earning < 30
AND
Promoter Holding > 45%
AND
Profit growth 3 years > 20%